The Burial of Alien Ghosts

THE BURIAL OF ALIEN GHOSTS-500

I have a new record out – The Burial of Alien Ghosts – with Robin Storey.

“The Burial of Alien Ghosts” is a musical construction by Henry Warwick and Robin Storey. The process was simple: to take each track of Robin’s early Rapoon record, “Raising Earthly Spirits”, and then process them, using a variety of features in Ableton Live. The processes included extracting Melody and Harmonic data from the original works and then converting them to MIDI data. This MIDI data was then edited and portions stripped into different channels, each with synthesizers programmed with unique sound designs, and then mixed from there. In this way, Henry did no playing or performing – a kind of “uncreative” music creativity. This method of working was prominent on previous works of Henry’s, and used to great effect on his records “Flirting with Camus: By Appointment”, and “Something Old / Something New”. One of the tracks, on this volume, Chore, features a short loop sampled directly from the song, Ochre. Everything else in the song is derived as described above.

The titles of the songs are anagrams of the original titles, and the title of the album is an obvious inversion of the original.

In the interest of fairness and as a generally good idea, Henry and Robin will receive no compensation from this record.

Every dollar / euro / pound spent acquiring this music will be donated to help the homeless and split between two charities; one in Toronto, the West Neighbourhood House, and one in the UK, shelter.org. If you care to donate more than the requested amount, feel free. Those with nowhere to stay will appreciate your generosity.

(c) 2017, Robin Storey and Henry Warwick
Another fine Kether Production.

credits

released August 1, 2017

Henry Warwick – Audio Processing, using Ableton Live
Robin Storey – Source Data

Flash is dead. Thank God.

And not a decade too soon. I always hated Flash. From the gitgo, it was a terrible program and was done so half assed from the start. It started as something cool – a way to make vector based animations. That’s all. Macromedia (MM) bought the company – FutureSplash – and turned it into Flash. Immediately, MM saw that Flash would be problematic for their mainstay program: Director, which used bandwidth hogging pixel based animations and a programming language, Lingo, for building CD ROM based applications. This was important, because your average computer had maybe 8 or 16MB of RAM, if that. CDRs provided a vast field of data storage, whcih could be co-ordinated with an app written in Director/Lingo. Flash changed that equation, and Director was dead meat. So, MM shoehorned the same structural concept of Director/Lingo into Flash using ActionScript. This meant MM didn’t have to layoff/payout expensive programmers – they could be shifted to Flash dev. The result was a clusterfuck called “Flash”. The Flash UI was terrible – counter intuitive and messy. Combined with MM shoehorning ActionScript into it, and then exploding its capabilities a la Lingo – just a horrible horrible mess. I could see immediately that MM was doomed. Especially after the Pajaro Dunes company meeting where Adobe was selected as “Enemy”. It was Schmitt fascism applied to corporate culture. Adobe won, although winning Flash isn’t much of a prize.

https://www.cnet.com/news/adobe-kills-flash-web-browser-tech-2020/

Trudeau’s Military Budget Plans

Trudeau’s plan to increase military spending to 70% more than what presently obtains is a foolish waste of money. His plan is described here:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/07/canada-increase-military-spending-nato

Canada has no need for an increase in military spending. I have heard basically several different discussions as to why this needs to happen, and they are all very bad arguments. The first one is, of course, the argument made since Hobbes: the Leviathan’s responsibility to national defence. In this case, that the Canadian military needs to protect Canadian sovereignty and independence. The second is for Canada to live up to NATO agreements on spending. The third is a kind of realpolitik, that the reality of the world we live in requires Canada to be to exert influence in its own self-interest, and thus needs to be able to project its power and this should be through the military both symbolically and materially. The idea that if you want influence, you need to need to have impact. It is the point of this document to demonstrate why all of these arguments are wrong, and why present day Canadian military spending is adequate.

First, the question of national defence, can be answered with another question:
What other nation can invade Canada?
Greenland? Nope.
Russia? Nope.
The USA? Yup.

Greenland’s population is about half that of the town I grew up in, Edison, New Jersey. Its defence is handled by the Government of Denmark, a country with two thirds the population of the state of New Jersey. Greenland poses no threat to Canada. A 70% increasing in military spending will do nothing to defend Canada from Greenland, as no defence is necessary.

Russia, like Greenland, has no land border with Canada. Russian boats regularly pass through or loiter in or near Canadian Arctic waters. However, Russia, with an economy only four fifths the size of Canada’s is hardly in a position to finance an invasion from across the Arctic Ocean, frozen or otherwise. Russia poses a harassing threat, but hardly a deadly military threat. A 70% increasing in military spending will do nothing to defend Canada from Russia, as no defence is necessary.

So, that leaves one other proximate country that could threaten Canadian sovereignty: the USA. Given the extensive interweaving of the USA and Canadian economies, the USA has little motivation to invade Canada. Indeed, it has no need at all, as it has effectively colonized Canada since World War II. Why invade something you basically own anyway? Also, the USA spends more on its military than the rest of the world combined. The size and power of the US Military is second to none. While it has experienced defeats and stalemates – Vietnam, Korea, and Afghanistan to name but a few – its ability to protect and project its interests around the world is not to be underestimated.

The physical proximity of the United States and Canada who share an enormous unfenced border has brought two countries together in terms of defence; however, for a long time – and most obviously and radically since the end of World War II – the terms and conditions of this mutual defence has been markedly in the interests of the USA.

This is just the American Defence Industry doing a shakedown of Canada. Where will that money go? Buying gear. Who builds it? The USA… This proposed military increase is preposterous and stupid. Hey – how about this – free university? Expanded medical benefits? Amplified renewable resources? Any one or all of those amplified to what a 70% increase of the military budget would provide would do far more to enhance Canadian security than spending all that money to buy toys from America and go incinerate people in other countries.

And military spending in terms of Candian sovereignity and independence? Puhleez.

That doesn’t explain why Canada needs a military, much less a 70% increase in military. The military’s primary purpose is defence of a nation. There is only one country capable of attacking Canada: The USA. The USA spends more than the rest of the world combined on its military, and thus, fighting a USA invasion would be a simple waste of time and life. Therefore: the Canadian Military cannot fulfill that part of its file. That is the reality. The other reality is a question of what else would/could the Canadian military do? It could engage in peacekeeping missions. That does not require F35 fighters or a 70% increase in the military budget. Its present size and structure is more than adequate to that task. The only other purpose would be the projection of force as part of imperialist policy dictated by a belligerent hegemon, the USA. Which is what this is actually all about. It has been demonstrated consistently that those who most closely align with the American’s projection of their imperium end up being targets of the people they bomb in an exercise of asymmetric warfare called terrorism. However, Terrorism is best fought not with military response but with counterintelligence, good police work, and a lack of provocation of the forces using terrorist methods. You don’t see Finland being attacked by ISIS or Daesh.

With confidence I assert, at this point in history, any military build up by Canada is a complete waste of money and will simply act as provocations to those people Canada attacks in conjunction with the American Imperium. It will, in effect, make Canada LESS safe.

 

A guide for a low-cost electronic music studio.

I’ve been making electronic music for over 30 years, and I’ve rarely worked in any kind of high-end studio. Most of my work has been recorded, mixed, and mastered in my own home studios. So just through a series of hard knocks and other things that give you “experience” I think I am in a good position to help advise people on how to make a good, decent, and useful budget studio.

I’m going to assume that you don’t have a lot of money – I never did. I’m also going to assume that you will do your best to acquire gear at the lowest possible costs. Do not be afraid of buying used gear, especially if it is relatively new. Electronic music studios often take excellent care of their equipment, so if you can find a piece of gear at a low cost with very little usage on it, go for it. Because I can’t assume that you have access to used gear, nor can I possibly anticipate the amount of money you might spend on a given piece of use gear, I am not going to discuss this article in terms of used gear. It’s impossible to anticipate what kind of deals you might come across, and in aggregate such deals could save you an extraordinary amount of money. So what I’m going to assume is that you are going to use this guide which will be priced according to street – retail prices, but will do your best to find them for less if and when you can.

There are a variety of ways to create electronic music. I can’t possibly anticipate all of them, nor can I even accommodate many of them here. However there are some basic things that are common to most electronic music studios. One is the ability to create electronic music out of a box. The other aspect is to record sounds, and then manipulate them inside a box. So I’m going to assume these two basic workflows.

Like anything having to do with ICT (information communication technology) there is a very strict flow to how it all works. This is all discussed by Claude Shannon back in the late 1940s and has since been developed to accommodate ICT. This flow is an algorithm of signal path. It goes like this:

Input > processing > output

to accommodate ICT, processing has been extended to include storage. So, a sound is created (input), it is sent to a processor (processing) where it is then written to ram or a hard drive (storage), and it goes back and forth between processing and storage until a desired outcome is reached and it goes to the output for you to hear. All electronic music studios by necessity follow this algorithm. We will use this algorithm to discuss the things you will need for your studio. Some things will benefit more than one part of the algorithm, but that only serves to underline the accuracy and power of the analysis. Given the importance of computers to the electronic music process in every step of the process, I will treat this first and separately.

You will need a computer. If you are reading this, it is very likely that you own a computer. All things being equal, the computer you are using right now may well be powerful enough to run electronic music audio software. The needs and demands of audio software are not rising as quickly as the capabilities and performance of today’s computers. So any ordinary quad core laptop will likely do just fine. I have two computers I use for making electronic music, one is for low and, less complex, simpler editing, and the other is for more high-end work and performance. The differences are interesting and illustrative.

My low-end “tank” computer is a five-year-old HP laptop. It runs Windows 7, has an i7 processor, eight GB of RAM, and a one TB hard drive. Its battery is shot, and this is the second hard drive I have put into it. I keep with it because it’s not a slow computer, and I bought it used years ago for only $550. This computer also doubles as my online browsing computer, and my writing computer. In fact I am writing this article using the HP laptop. To write this article I am using Dragon voice recognition software, because I sprained my wrist recently. The HP is more than powerful enough to do all of that, and do it well. If they can do that it can do basic audio duties, like allow me to record and edit my radio show, “something completely different” on CJRU – AM and the Internet. There will be links to this at the end of this essay. The HP laptop does a fine job for what I needed it to do. There was a time not that long ago when I did everything on the HP laptop. This meant running Ableton live, audacity, and a pile of VST processors and instruments. It did all of that just fine, it just weighs a ton, and Windows 7, like most versions of Windows, can be cranky with different drivers and devices. But it worked.

My other computer, which is my dedicated music computer, is a MacBook air. It’s an i7 processor with 16 GB RAM, and a 256 GB SSD. It also cost $2000. Well, technically $1986. You get the picture. It is blazingly fast and can do most anything I ask it to. Because it’s an Apple computer, it has a very easy time with all the devices that I plug into it. That’s one of the things I like about the Macintosh, it just works. However, I’m going to assume that you don’t have $2000 for a MacBook air. Which leads us back to what I was discussing earlier, that you should look into high-quality used gear when you can. Like my HP laptop. The selection of the computer is critical, because it will determine the kinds of software that you’ll be able to run on it, and to a certain extent the kinds of hardware peripherals that you will be able to use with it.

As I said if you’ve been reading this on your computer, you probably have a computer that will work well enough to get you started. If you don’t have a computer or you are certain that your computer just won’t be able to handle the rigours of audio production, then let’s make a budget item for a computer.

I went over to BestBuy.ca and saw that they have some computers on sale. One of them is an Asus 15 inch laptop running Windows 10 on an i5 processor, with eight GB of RAM, and a one TB hard drive for $650. With tax, let’s call it $700. Please note: I am not endorsing Best Buy nor am I endorsing Sweetwater even though I am using them for my pricing examples. I’m using Best Buy and Sweetwater simply because I’m lazy, and I hate Guitar Centre/Musician’s Friend.

So now that we have that major bit of the discussion done, let’s go on to more amusing things. Let’s talk about input devices.

INPUT

input devices are dependent on the kinds of input you’re making. One kind of input is audio, and that requires microphones. Another kind of input is MIDI data. And that requires the kinds of gear that generate MIDI data. Another aspect of input is its close relationship with output. And this is best expressed in terms of your interface. Because the interface, like the computer, has so much to do with different parts of the algorithm, we will discuss that first.

Audio Interfaces

starting out, you are not going to need a vast number of input jacks and sophisticated signal routing systems. This is fortunate, because it means that you won’t have to spend as much money. The budget audio interface market is pretty crowded. Most of the gear is also fairly equivalent. A representative, and I believe pretty good, example of a low budget audio interface is the Focusrite Scarlett 2i2. I went over to Sweetwater.com and found that they are selling it for $150. That’s fine. There are other low-budget interfaces. For example I also saw the Presonus audio box USB 96 for $100. It will work too. The important thing about both of these boxes is that they have the ability to accept standard microphones. That will come in very handy down the line as you record sounds for your music.

MIDI input

MIDI stands for musical information digital interface, and it is the lingua franca of electronic music. It is important to remember that MIDI is not sound. It’s just the data that triggers events in your gear that creates sound. You can think of it as kind of like a computerized piano roll. Because I know you’re on a desperate budget, we won’t go into all the elaborate and truly remarkable gear that you can get to create MIDI input. I have a number of devices that do this for me. The main piece I use is a Novation Impulse 61. It looks like a 61 Key synthesizer, but it only generates MIDI. I got it because I needed a good keyboard, and the ability to immediately access my software, Ableton live. Since you are on a budget, we will assume that you are not using Ableton live, or ProTools, or Logic, or any other really expensive software. We will get to software in the processing section. Suffice to say, I’m assuming you want to go in with as low-budget as possible, because the poverty so common to artists is your present day lot.

So to that end I would recommend looking at something like the Nektar Impact LX25+ Keyboard Controller. The keys on it are full-size, although you only get two octaves. This is fine for a great deal of electronic music sound generation. It also has a number of features that I find rather attractive:

One: drum pads. Having drum pads allows you to pound out a rhythm very quickly, or use them to trigger various electronic events in your software. So that is a thumbs-up for this particular piece of gear.

Two: it has eight knobs which can be used to control a variety of soft synths and processors.

Three: it has buttons that will allow you to control start, stop, play, and record in your software. This is very handy as it will eliminate the need to go clumping around with your mouse to record something. It makes your workflow much faster.

Four: I saw it on sale at Sweetwater for $100. That’s cheap.

So this one little keyboard will allow you to get a lot of things done fairly quickly.

Microphone

microphones range in quality and price. Like anything, the better stuff is more expensive, and the best stuff is simply extortionate. However, there is a lot of inexpensive gear that gives at least adequate recording quality. For example I am recording my voice to dictate this article using a Blue Yeti USB microphone. I bought it on sale at Best Buy for $129. Is it a Neumann U 87? Hell no. There is a plethora of inexpensive mics out there, and finding used mics is fairly easy. So, let’s say you spend $100 on a mic.

 

Now let’s talk about processing.

Processing

Your main software will determine much of what you do, and how you do it in your electronic music. This kind of software known as a DAW (Digital audio workstation) can be very powerful, and different DAWs are built for different purposes. Because you are trying to do things as cheaply as possible, your options are substantially more limited. That’s why I am recommending you use a program called Reaper.

Reaper is a perfectly adequate DAW, and it has one terrific advantage over many others: it’s really, really, cheap. In fact, you can use it for free for a few months. Personally, I would recommend actually buying the software, as it only costs $60. This software will create a framework for you to be able to record your electronic music. It comes with a basic synthesizer, and a number of basic processors. And this will be fine to get started. However you will probably quickly tire of such limited functionality, and this is where VST plug-ins come in.

VST was developed by Steinberg many years ago. It’s basically a simple plug-in architecture that allows a host software, such as Reaper, to talk to various audio softwares. This could be synthesizers, processors, effects, drum machines, all kinds of crazy stuff. And the best part about VST, is that you can download vast numbers of VST instruments, processors, effects etc. for free. And not from piracy, just simply made by people who are enthusiasts for the electronic music genre and have the skills to build VST instruments. Finding them is really very simple, just Google “VST free”. There are many sites that distribute VST plug-ins.

There are other DAWs that are amazing, and they have different purposes. ProTools is excellent, however it is optimized for multitrack recording and is a bit of an industry standard in that regard. Using it for MIDI composition is not its strong suit. Ableton Live is excellent for loop based music and MIDI production. It is not optimized for multichannel production. Apple’s Logic sits in between them. All three are quite expensive – my version of Ableton, Ableton Live Suite v9 cost about $800. A full blown version of ProTools is much the same. Logic is also not cheap. There are low cost versions of Live and ProTools, but their restricted features are not for fun making. Therefore, I recommend Reaper. At $60 it’s hard to go wrong.

So, let’s look at what we’ve got so far:

You bought a computer for $700.
An interface for $100
$100 for a mic
$100 for a MIDI keyboard
$60 for Reaper
You will need a mic stand – that’s another $30

So, we’re basically covered for Input and Processing. Now, Output.

Output

The Interface will have jacks to go out to your monitors. You will need monitors. Mixing down to headphones is not advised. Using headphones to test your music is advised. So is a car stereo and a boom box. However, you need to hear music with some precision and clarity. Getting decent monitors for cheap is not easy – you do get what you pay for up to about $1400. Over that price point, there are returns but they are diminishing compared to the cost. You can spend $14k on monitors, and they will not be 10x better. They will provide you some clarity that is otherwise unavailable, but that’s not the point, nor within our budget. So what are best dirt cheap monitors? It depends – the best thing is to trust your ears.

To my ears, if I was trying to get the most for the least, I would consider the Mackie MR5 mkIII’s or the KRK Rockit 5’s. The Mackies cost about $120 each, the Rockits about $150 each. There are other speakers in this range, JBL makes a nice pair in this range as well, and I would urge you to listen yourself to test them. To do that bring a piece of music you really like and know EVERY detail and test it on every set – see which sounds best.

I use Event PS8 speakers which are very much like the Event 2020bas speaker. They’re very good. I got them on a crazy sale at a music store for $700 back in 1998. They are no longer made. Their cousin, the 2020bas, cost about $580 each these days. Good speakers are important. It’s what you listen to. So, let’s say you go for the Rockits – that’s $300 for your monitors.
You bought a computer for $700.
An interface for $100
$100 for a mic
$100 for a MIDI keyboard
$60 for Reaper
You will need a mic stand – that’s another $30
And the monitors add $300.
Total? About $1400. If you already own a computer, half that.

From there, you can finesse things (like getting your room treated acoustically, paying for some quality synths, collecting instruments and noise makers, etc…) but the above will get you making electronic music right quick. If you keep your eyes on ebay and craigslist you can save even more money. There is no excuse for not being creative.

The British Election of 8 June 2017

I don’t live in the UK, so my reflections here are necessarily of a mediated nature. I get all my news and information through the media. That said, the election seems to have ended with the following seats and percentages:

Party                            Seats         %
===============================
Conservative…………..318……….48.9
Labour…………………….261……….40.2
SNP……………………………35………….5.4
Liberal Democrat…….12………….1.8
DUP……………………………10………….1.5
Sinn Fein……………………7…………..1.1
Plaid Cymru………………4…………..0.6
Green…………………………1…………..0.2

First some details that are peripheral, but interesting.

— The Conservatives took a large chunk of the Scottish vote away from the SNP. Had those precincts stayed with the SNP, what would’ve simply been a “bad night” for the Conservatives, would have made it vastly worse. Why so many Scots voted for the Conservatives, I can only speculate. My guess is that it is reflective of dissent within Scotland over the subject of Brexit.

— One thing I found most heartening about the election results was the complete disappearance of UKIP. They won zero seats. It seems their support went largely to the Conservatives. There really is no place for their hateful brand of racist and quasi-fascist politics.

Some of what can be said about this election borders on boilerplate level obviousness. Theresa May has clearly miscalculated in calling for that early election. Her plan of growing the strength and reach of the Conservative party and of consolidating her position within the Conservative party has clearly failed. The Conservatives lost seats, and are only holding onto power by operating in conjunction with the DUP. The DUP is a socially conservative party based in Northern Ireland. The leadership of the DUP has said that they will not form a coalition government with the Conservatives. They said that they would go forward with the Conservatives on a case-by-case bill by bill basis. This means that no controversial legislation will be able to move through Parliament.

In essence, stuck with a hung parliament, there is very little that the Conservatives can do. However, there is much they must do. The negotiations for Brexit began in 11 days. With no real mandate, and crumbling support within the party, Theresa may will likely have to resign. These negotiations are critical to the future of the UK. If she resigns before the negotiations started in 11 days, the European representatives will be left in a very weak position because they won’t really have a solid negotiating partner they can trust going forward who represents the will and interests of the people of the UK as formulated by their elected government. On the other hand, if she holds on through the negotiations she won’t be able to implement any kind of an agreement her government has arrived at with the European representatives, as she is presiding over a hung parliament.

I think that this hung parliament was the second best thing that could happen under the circumstances. The best would have been for Labour to simply win the election outright. Then Corbyn could’ve formed a government and begin to undo all of the nonsensical coldhearted miserable policies of austerity that the Conservative government has promulgated over the past several years. So short of that, simply blunting the ability of the Conservatives to get anything done is, I believe, a good thing. And this hung parliament does exactly that.

So going forward, some predictions should be made. The easiest prediction is that Theresa May will step down as prime minister. I think that is pretty much a foregone conclusion, and the only question is not a matter of if but when. Obviously she can’t leave office before the negotiations begin. And even if she did announce that she was going to leave office, it would take a few months to organize a Conservative party leadership election. So, I believe it is fair to say that Theresa may will be an office during the Brexit negotiations.

The big question is how long will the DUP side with the Conservatives in Parliament, and how long would be for another election is called. My guess is that the prime minister will announce her resignation probably in about a month or less. The Conservatives will then hold a party election for leader in the late summer probably August. The new leader will likely try to do something that will piss off the DUP and that will kick an election some time in late November or early December. That’s a mid range possibility. If the negotiations go particularly badly in the next few weeks with the EU, then it is possible that the above noted turn of events may accelerate by a month perhaps two. If things go well in the Brexit negotiations in a few weeks, then it is possible that she may hold onto her job a bit longer, and the Conservatives remain in power a bit longer. I don’t really see the Conservatives surviving another election.

This brings us to what will hopefully replace the Conservatives. I believe that Corbyn will continue gathering strength and solidarity with the people of the UK who are most vulnerable to the callous machinations of the Conservative party. I also believe that Corbyn will be able to rally this support at the next election and institute a much more progressive agenda and set of policies that will drag the UK into the 21st century. Because Lord knows the Conservatives would like to drag it back to the 19th.

I sprained my wrist

I sprained my wrist . I was walking down the stairs, and slipped on the second to last stair. Losing my balance, I fell backwards. I slipped on the carpeted stairs, and my hand and wrist were twisted beneath me. As a consequence, I sprained my wrist. This has me less than happy. My right wrist and hand are now in an ace bandage and Velcro support. This means I can’t type anything . At least at any reasonable speed. So now I am discovering the wonders of the windows speech recognition system. Right now it is a slow and difficult to use. Right now, it is actually slower that typing. This is very frustrating. It means that I cannot play my keyboards either.  I have a lot of music I have to work on. I also have two books that are in close proximity of finish. I need to finish them. How I’m going to do this using speech recognition is completely beyond me. sigh. I have typed this entry into my blog using speech recognition. And took almost 15 minutes to do this. Grumble. Grumble. Grumble.

Scenarios for Trump

edited 24 May.

I realise it ain’t over ‘til it’s over, but I think some visioning could be useful. I think it is time to plan out some logical scenarios, based on different courses of action regarding the Trump Junta. Time is an important dimension in all of this.

Trump stays.
This would be the most suboptimal result for all concerned, including Trump. There was talk early on that Trump never wanted to be president – he saw himself as a protest candidate. When he started winning, his ego – roughly the size of Betelguese, only dark and seething instead of red and pulsating – got in the way, and his vanity campaign turned into his vanity presidency. His disinclination to take the job seriously is evident in his regular flights to Mar a Lago – he’d rather play golf than do his job.  He has no idea what he’s doing and isn’t all that worried about that. He is more worried about the things that threaten to remove him from office.

However, one scenario is that he beats the rap – nothing sticks, the Republicans close ranks around him and prevent his ouster. In this way, he continues the dismantling of the USA in the interests of the Republican Party and their owners. This would result in a few things – the most obvious is the immiseration of millions of people. I’ve been predicting a major economic discontinuity for 2017 / 2018 for a number of years, and this would further exacerbate the problems inflicted on the USA by the ruling elite and their Republican Pawns. However, this could also lead to a Democratic sweep in 2018. If that happens then Trump’s days in office are numbered, possibly in fewer than three digits after the Congress starts in 2019. The results of his impeachment and conviction would be interesting and follows.

Assuming he doesn’t beat the rap then we’re looking at several possibilities:
1. He resigns
2. He is removed by the 25th Amendment
3. He is impeached
4. He and Pence and Ryan are impeached / convicted per RICO charges.

The timing becomes important.

  1. He Resigns
    There is a nonzero probability that he will resign. This would be the scenario most desired by the Republican establishment. This way, Trump is gone, they don’t have to impeach him, and they get Pence and all his right wing dullery as a prize. His resignation may be triggered by the Republicans – they may have a sit-down with him and tell him: “Look, if you don’t quit, we will impeach you and convict you. It would be best for the Republican party if you simply quit and walked away from this. You can make a deal with Pence to have him pardon you as his first act in office. You don’t go to jail, we keep power, and all is well for our owners.” He’d probably take that deal. In terms of timing, sooner would be better for him and the Republican Party. Dragging this past the 2018 elections would still work for them, but if he quit now, they would have more time to prepare for 2018.
  2. He is removed per the 25th Amendment
    This is a bit of a longshot. However, it would work to the Republican advantage to do this, quickly. it’s pretty clear that Trump is a taco short of a combo platter, and his cognitive abilities meager at his best decades ago, are obviously degraded. There is a non-zero probability that he has dementia or early stages of Alzheimers. If so, the Republicans could use the 25th Amendment to remove him. If they did this quickly, Pence would be made president. How quickly could it be done? His mental state would have to deteriorate, or, more precisely, his apparent and reported mental state, would have to be one of deep deterioration. That would be a difficult trick to pull off, for as daft as he is, he isn’t any more insane than half the congress critturs who would seek his ouster.
  3. He is impeached
    If he doesn’t take up the Republican Offer to GET LOST, then there are a number of things to impeach him on – emoluments clause, conflict of interest, nepotism, etc. This would be the Republican’s second choice. It would totally mess up their plans and take a lot of time and energy. They would rather have him simply resign. If he resists all the way to conviction and does not resign, I don’t think the Republican Leadership will be particularly merciful. Very messy. If it does go this way, it would be best for the Republicans if they got it over with in the next several months, to prepare for 2018 and set up deflections should they lose in 2018. Such preparations could also serve them well if they don’t get creamed in 2018.
  4. He and Pence and Ryan are impeached / convicted per RICO charges.
    If this is done quickly, then it results in President Orrin Hatch. A Hatch administration would be an improvement over what presently obtains, however, it would not be an improvement for the better. It would be like jumping out of a burning building, and winding up in the hospital just to find that you have a few broken bones and your burns are superficial, however, you now have stage II bowel cancer. So, while yes, you didn’t die in the fire, it seems your life really completely sucks now. However, a Hatch Admin would be most acceptable to the Republican powerbrokers. This can only happen if Trump and his junta are impeached and removed before 2018. If not, and 2018 goes Democratic, and then the Democrats remove the junta, you could see President Pelosi…

This all puts the Republican Leadership in a deep bind. So far, Trump hasn’t really produced much for them. They’re not getting much back from the Grifter In Chief for their support. They can’t hold onto him much longer, at the same time, they can’t be actively removing him without losing their own base. If they do carry him much longer, the investigations could prove brutal and force him out anyway via RICO. And beyond that, there’s 2018, and if it goes Democratic and Trump is still there, he will be removed shortly thereafter as noted above.

So, I would predict massive pressure to build in the leadership to convince Trump to resign. They’re not going to get much more out of him. He’s an imbecile and incompetent.

I would also predict that in the next month or two they will realise that standing in the way of the investigations won’t help them, and they will become more amenable to investigative hearings and a committee or commission to investigate impeachment.

As long as the Republicans control Congress, they can’t really lose in most of these scenarios. So a swift removal of Trump will serve them well. If the Democrats take Congress in 2018, Trump is gone anyway. They need to figure out who is better for them: Hatch or Pence or Ryan? If Pence goes, Ryan goes with him, so it effectively boils down to Pence and Hatch. The window for that is not closed, but it does have a time limit.