Brexit

OK – here’s my snap analysis of what will come of Brexit:

1. The pound will crater. Do not be surprised if it goes to parity with the USD.
2. This will likely trigger a major recession in the UK.
3. There will be a lot of language about “non-binding referendum”.
4. Non-zero probability that UK won’t actually leave.
5. If 4 is true, then the neoliberal shitshow will proceed unabated.
6. If 4 is not true, then expect Scotland to demand another stay/leave UK referendum, and for Scotland to vote to leave the UK 60/40 and to join the EU.
7. I think Cameron will have to resign fairly soon.
8. Northern Ireland voted Remain. They are well and truly fucked. They can choose to stay with the UK or leave and join the EU with Scotland. My guess is if Scotland leaves UK, so will NIR. That will normalise trade and movement between NIR and IRL.
9. Most of the UK share of the North Sea Oil is in Scottish waters. England has no real resources. They’re totally screwed.
10. Expect a lot of sads from the UK over the next year or two. All it has is its financial system in London, which will be abandoned as the vectoralists and financiers decamp to New York and Berlin.
11. Expect the American dollar to soar, as the Pound drops and the Euro, already jittery, continues to slide. The only currency left standing will be the USD.
12. This may jolt Canada hard enough that they’ll finally wake up and ditch England and its stupid aristocracy and declare itself a Parliamentary Confederacy. Finally.
13. As England collapses, it will surge further to the right. That will get ugly. Fast.

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